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1. Caution mounts on growth rate

2. Experts play down bridge flooding threat to delta cities

3. Hong Kong consultant to lead surveyors’ group in its global expansion drive.

1. Caution mounts on growth rate
Wu Zhong, The Standard 6 December 2002

Beijing is expected to set its economic growth target for next year at 7 per cent - the same as for 2002 - despite actual GDP growth this year reaching 8 per cent.

The announcement will be made at a central economic conference next week.

The figure reflects an air of caution that is creeping into mainland economic predictions following Premier Zhu Rongji's widely reported comments in Hong Kong last month about too much speedy growth being unhealthy.

In an apparently related move, the People's Bank of China has told domestic banks to tighten up on their property lending in an effort to cool the real-estate market, where experts have been warning of a construction bubble.

Meanwhile, Guangdong's chief economic planner set a 9 per cent target for growth in the province's gross domestic product (GDP) next year - the same as this year's, although the actual increase for 2002 is expected to be 10.5 per cent.

In the first 10 months of the year, Guangdong's GDP grew by 10.6 per cent to reach 930.13 billion yuan (HK$877.11 billion), according to Huang Weihong, director of Guangdong provincial development planning commission.

The strong growth has been spurred by increases in investment, exports and consumption, Huang said in a report to the standing committee of Guangdong provincial people's congress. Guangdong's fixed-asset investment totalled 271 billion yuan from January to October while actual foreign direct investment reached US$12.63 billion (HK$98.51 billion).

Exports were up 25 per cent at US$96.57 billion, accounting for 36.8 per cent of the country's total, and enabling Guangdong to record a trade surplus of US$12.9 billion which was almost half of the country's total surplus.

Guangdong's retail figures for the January-October period totalled 406.2 billion yuan by value, an increase of 10.9 per cent.

In retail volume, Guangdong surpassed Shanghai and Jiangsu province in the Yangtze River Delta.

Huang said this showed Guangdong topped other regions in terms of residents' purchasing power, although in per capita disposable income terms, the province lagged behind Shanghai.

In the first 10 months, average per capita income throughout the province was 9,379 yuan - 1,700 yuan less than in Shanghai - although in the rich cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, it was higher.

Last year, the per capita disposable income of Shanghai residents was 12,883 yuan, while the figure was 23,544 yuan in Shenzhen and 14,694 yuan in Guangzhou.

Besides the provincial government's projected 9 per cent growth in GDP next year, Huang said other targets included a 5 per cent increase in residents' disposable income; a 10 per cent surge in fixed-asset investment; a 10 per cent growth in the retail sector; and a 5 per cent increase in exports.

The booming southern province also aims to create 630,000 new jobs in the cities to contain the urban unemployment rate below 3.5 per cent, Huang said.

2. Experts play down bridge flooding threat to delta cities
CHEUNG CHI-FAI, SCMP 6 December 2002

Mainland officials may be worrying unnecessarily about the potential impact of the proposed Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge on the Pearl River's ecology, professionals and academics said yesterday.

But green groups have identified no-go areas with ecological and heritage value where landing points on the Hong Kong side should be avoided.

On Wednesday, the Guangdong Governor, Lu Ruihua, said the proposal needed to be studied in detail because of potential ecological problems. He was speaking after meeting Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa who was on a two-day trip to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which ended yesterday.

The Guangdong side is understood to fear that the bridge proposal could adversely affect the tidal flow in the Pearl River Delta and that cities upstream could face a higher flooding risk.

But Raymond Ho Chung-tai, legislator for the engineering sector, said Guangdong was over-worried. "It is unlikely that the construction of such a bridge would lead to flooding in cities upstream," he said.

Chan Wing-kun, from the Chinese University's geography department, said: "The exact impact has to be studied. But it seems that the river estuary is so wide that the extent of flow blockage will be minimal."

Professor Chan said road bridges built across the narrower channels upstream might be having a more serious impact on the water flow. But he said more studies needed to be carried out to assess the situation.

The Pearl River Estuary covers an area of about 2,000 sq km with a width of between 15 and 35km. The depth is between two to 10 metres while high tide can raise these levels by at least a metre.

Hong Kong is still studying the possible landing points for the bridge. In a recent meeting with the environment minister, Sarah Liao Sau-tung, green groups identified several no-go areas in the choice of landing points on western Lantau.

They hope that Fun Lau on the southwestern tip of Lantau - where fresh and sea water mixes and which could be turned into a marine park - can be avoided and say the natural coastline from Tai O to Sham Wat should be preserved.

Samuel Hung, a researcher on white dolphins at the University of Hong Kong, said he was worried that they would be unavoidably affected if their major habitat near western Lantau was disturbed.

Ng Cho-nam, director of the Conservancy Association, said the government should consider expanding the dolphin protection area.

3. Hong Kong consultant to lead surveyors’ group in its global expansion drive.
Richard Warren, SCMP 4 December 2002

The appointment reflects Rics’ ambition to represent the industry worldwide and its growing China involvement.

One of Hong Kong’s foremost chartered surveyors is to head the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyor (Rics), the world’s leading property professional organization.

Nicholas Brooke, a consultant with Insignia Brooke, will become president of London-based Rics from June next year, subject to final approval of its governing council in the spring.

His appointment is the latest stage of Rics’ growing involvement in Hong Kong and china, which will see a Chinese branch of Rics launched this month and several representative offices opened later. It also reflects Rics’ ambition to represent the property industry worldwide.

A Rics spokesman said Mr. Brooke had been appointed because of his networking skills and visionary approach in wanting to extend the institution’s influence over the global property industry.

Mr Brooke, who is senior vice-president of Rics, will be the body’s first president not based in Britain.

Mr. Brooke said his appointment reflected the growing internationalism of Rics.

“It is a recognition of our global nature and the fact that we have members in most major countries in the world,” he said. “I am looking forward immensely to the challenge. Being the first international president, it is very important, as the pioneer, to get it right.”

Mr Brooke will become a globe-trotting ambassador and guiding light for Rics, an organization that boasts 110,000 members in Hong Kong.

His appointment was politically important for Rics’ expansion into China, Mr Brooke believed.

“I think the appointment of a president who has links into China will be viewed very positively, particularly by the authorities, who are very keen to better understand best practice, the external market and how things are done by experienced professionals like chartered surveyors.”

Rics had only 100 members in China but it could become the body’s biggest national association in 15 to 20 years because of its rapid economic expansion and huge population, Mr Brooke said.

“there are already valuation organizations, real-estate organizations, construction organizations, several of which have hundreds of thousands of members each. I’m not saying that all these will become Rics members, but that this illustrates the size of the opportunity,” he said.

Rics would extend its membership in China by setting up more master’s degree courses. Graduates would become ambassadors for Rics, encouraging to hers to join. Experienced property practitioners would be offered Rics membership, too.

Mr Brooke said Rics had much to offer China. “We have a whole plethora of members with a wide range of experience, we bring best practice, international experience, professionalism, independence of view and ethics – these are very high on the agenda,” he said.

Mr Brooke emphasized Rics was not embarking on a form of neo-colonialism, whereby property professionals across the world would follow diktats devised in London.

“I don’t think we should be deciding from headquarters what should be happening in China or what should be happening in Sri Lanka or wherever it is. We should be establishing general guidelines for the overall direction of the policy. How that is implemented should be left to the national association.”

He supports decentralization of Rics, including opening regional offices in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and Brussels.

Mr. Brooke wants to deepen Rics’ involvement in the property industry by developing closer links with other professional bodies and being more commercially minded in selling its knowledge and skills to them.

“One of the things to think about is extending our customer base whereby we offer our services to the property industry at large. Why don’t we offer services to the developers, architects, engineers? We are not maximizing the opportunity. If people want to buy research or publications, or commission us to do things for them, we have the infrastructure, so why not do it?” he said.

Rics membership ought to be offered to these professionals, he added. “If we are to achieve our ambition to represent the property industry then we need to embrace these people.”

As part of a new entrepreneurial approach, Mr Brooke wants chartered surveyors to become more businesslike.

“One of the things I want to talk to a lot of the young members about is looking at new opportunities, at setting up their own businesses,” he said.

Mr Brooke’s entrepreneurial views have been moulded by his experience of Hong Kong’s free market.

Apart from favouring market solutions, Mr Brooke believed emerging economies could learn from Hong Kong’s experience of building infrastructure early, focusing development on transport hubs and ensuring minimal government interference in planning.